New Study Predicts the Gas-Powered Owners Most Ready to Embrace EVs

It is very clear that America will begin mass EV adoption soon. 2024 was the first time in modern automotive history that the sales share of new conventional internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles has fallen below 80% in the United States. CNBC reported that for the first time last year, sales of all-electric and hybrid vehicles accounted for 20% of new car and truck sales in the U.S., marking a significant milestone for “green” vehicles. According to Motor Intelligence, over 3.2 million electrified vehicles were sold, which includes 1.9 million hybrid vehicles, such as plug-ins, and 1.3 million fully electric models.

The U.S. market for electric vehicles (EVs) is on track for continued growth in 2025. According to Cox Automotive’s 2025 Outlook, one out of every four vehicles sold will be electrified, with EVs expected to account for about 10% of the total market. This marks a significant increase from approximately 7.5% in 2024.

Strategic Vision Predicts the Gas-Powered Owners Most Ready to Embrace EVs

With the U.S. rapidly shifting toward electrification, consumers’ evolving views on Electric Vehicles (EVs) and the rising presence of EVs in global markets like China (including Plug-In EVs), developing a product strategy for both the near and distant future has become increasingly complex. However, Strategic Vision’s latest New Vehicle Experience Study (NVES) offers an insightful analysis of which gasoline vehicle owners are most inclined to transition to EVs and which ones remain committed to traditional fuel sources. The study also explores strategies to persuade gas-powered vehicle owners to make the switch and uncovers why some have already made the change. These insights are invaluable for automakers navigating the competitive EV landscape.

The study focused on 2023 and 2024 gasoline vehicle buyers without any EVs in their households. Strategic Vision’s exclusive EV Future Propensity Score (FPS) evaluates key factors—such as a consumer’s stated interest in EVs as a future or next vehicle, previous shopping behavior, and current preferences—to identify the vehicle owners most likely to adopt EVs in the years ahead.

Sporty Cars and Compact Models Leading

As expected, vehicles known for their sporty performance and compact design top the list of those with the highest EV Future Propensity Score (FPS). These models align perfectly with the key advantages of EVs: instant acceleration, cutting-edge technology, and innovative design. Leading the charge is the MINI Cooper 4-door Hardtop, which boasts the highest FPS at 116. Its appeal lies in its playful driving experience, small footprint, and a strong, recognizable brand identity that continues to attract drivers looking for both fun and functionality.

Other standout models in the high-EV FPS range include the Mazda Miata MX-5 (FPS 105), which appeals to buyers looking for exciting performance coupled with stylish design. The MINI Cooper Clubman (FPS 104) and the Volvo XC90 (FPS 103) further exemplify that premium and sporty vehicles are well-positioned for the EV transition. Luxury brands are also making their mark, with the BMW Z4 Roadster (FPS 101), Audi A5/S5/RS5 Sportback (FPS 101), and Mercedes-Benz E-Class Cabriolet (FPS 99) all showing strong FPS scores. These vehicles offer thrilling performance today while hinting at the even greater potential of EVs to elevate the driving experience in the future.

On the flip side, trucks and certain domestic sedans face notable challenges in the EV shift. The Nissan Rogue Sport sits at the bottom of the FPS rankings, closely followed by the Dodge Charger and GMC Acadia. These vehicles represent segments where consumers remain more loyal to traditional powertrains, as they aren’t as easily swayed by the advantages of EVs. Other lower scorers, such as the Jeep Wrangler Unlimited and Chevrolet Tahoe, cater to customers who prioritize off-road capability, towing capacity, and long-distance range—areas where EV technology still struggles to meet consumer expectations fully.

Understanding the EVs Most Likely to be Adopted

The strengths of EVs naturally align with what buyers of high-performance cars already value: rapid acceleration, quiet operation, and advanced technology—all of which are more easily achieved with an electric powertrain. Conversely, truck buyers and traditional vehicle enthusiasts tend to prioritize more visceral aspects like engine noise, towing capacity, and nostalgia, qualities that EVs are still working to replicate or reimagine in a meaningful way.

For instance, iconic muscle cars like the Dodge Challenger and Dodge Charger, known for their rumbling engines, rank among the least likely to switch to EVs. Similarly, more budget-focused vehicles like the Ford Escape (FPS 21) and Chevrolet Trailblazer (FPS 19) highlight the need for affordability to drive more buyers toward EV options. However, this doesn’t mean Dodge can’t find success in the EV market. “Dodge must understand the values and motivations that will make consumers consider a Dodge EV—and spoiler alert, it’s not environmental friendliness,” says Christopher Chaney, Senior Vice President at Strategic Vision.

Opportunities for Automakers to Improve EV Sales

This data presents valuable opportunities for automakers to refine their strategies. Models like the MINI Cooper and Mazda Miata demonstrate how EVs can cater to buyers seeking agility and excitement, while premium brands like BMW and Audi reveal the untapped potential for high-performance electric vehicles. For trucks and domestic sedans, overcoming the perception of EV limitations is key. Advances in towing capacity, range, and durability could help close the gap. Subaru provides a compelling example, with the Subaru Ascent’s FPS showing that nearly 1 in 4 owners are actively researching EVs for their next purchase. This highlights how adventure-focused brands can appeal to eco-conscious buyers without sacrificing their rugged, outdoorsy image.

Alexander Edwards, President of Strategic Vision, spoke with EVinfo.net about the importance of these findings.

“The data reveals a clear pattern: EV adoption isn’t just about technology; it’s about aligning with the values and priorities of specific consumer segments. Automakers must tailor their messaging and product offerings to resonate with these groups if they want to accelerate EV adoption. It is about offering a vehicle that isn’t a compromise with range, price, and refueling, but the best-in-class vehicle of acceleration, innovation, and personalization,” said Edwards.

Strategic Vision is a consulting and advisory services firm that specializes in understanding and predicting consumer preferences, loyalty, and advocacy through its unique approach of Value Centered Psychology®. For more insights and detailed data from the 2024 New Vehicle Experience Study, visit the website at www.strategicvision.com.