How Long Will the Move to 100% EV Take in America?

The transition from gas-powered vehicles to electric vehicles (EVs) in the U.S. is a complex and gradual process, and while headlines often focus on short-term challenges, the broader trend of rising EV demand remains clear. While the adoption of EVs may seem slow in America compared to other countries, it’s important to understand the pace at which this transition is occurring globally, within the context of vehicle ownership patterns and infrastructure development.

The global electric vehicle (EV) market continued its strong growth in November 2024, with sales of fully electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles rising by 32.3% year-on-year, reaching a total of 1.83 million units. This marks the seventh consecutive month of record-breaking growth, according to market research firm Rho Motion. However, this growth is largely driven by China, which now accounts for nearly 70% of global EV sales. Chinese sales saw a remarkable 50% increase, with 1.27 million EVs sold in November alone.

In contrast, the U.S. and Canada experienced a more modest increase in EV sales, growing by 16.8% with 170,000 vehicles sold. In America, GM, Honda, and Hyundai are rapidly gaining EV market share every quarter. All three companies are highly recommended by EVinfo.net.

Meanwhile, European markets have faced challenges, with registrations slightly declining year-on-year, totaling 280,000 units. However, European sales showed some recovery from October, rising by 7.7% month-over-month.

The data reflects a regional disparity in the EV market, with China leading the way in terms of sales and growth, while Europe and North America are facing a more complex set of challenges. In Europe, for instance, the growth of EVs is tempered by factors such as economic uncertainty, policy shifts, and consumer hesitations, which have contributed to a slowdown in registrations. The U.S. market is seeing steady growth, but at a slower pace compared to China.

China’s BYD proved to the world that BEVs could be sold cheaper than gas cars, with its Seagull. BYD’s $10,000 Seagull EV was the top-selling car in China in August 2024. As other producers in America and around the world gain this production efficiency, the lower cost of EVs in relation to gas cars will make the EVs grow much more quickly.

This trend highlights the uneven pace of the global EV transition, with China at the forefront and other markets, like Europe and North America, still grappling with various obstacles that affect the adoption rate of electric vehicles. Despite these challenges, the overall trajectory remains positive, with the global EV market showing continued expansion, particularly in China.

Cars Are Not Replaced Frequently

In the U.S., there are over 283 million vehicles on the road, with an average vehicle age of 12.6 years. Americans replace their vehicles infrequently. This explains why the shift to EVs is gradual—people don’t buy cars as frequently as they adopt other consumer technologies, such as smartphones or light bulbs.

The Smartphone Revolution vs. The EV Revolution

When looking at the speed of the EV revolution, the smartphone transition sets a good example. The transition from traditional mobile phones to smartphones was a rapid and transformative process that reshaped global technology usage. Before the iPhone’s release, mobile phones were primarily used for voice calls, text messages, and simple tasks. The introduction of the iPhone marked a pivotal moment in this shift, as it combined a touch interface, internet access, and an app store into a sleek, portable device. This innovation, followed by Android, set the stage for the widespread adoption of smartphones.

While the transition was not without its challenges—especially regarding the learning curve for older generations, higher costs, and initial hesitations—smartphones quickly became essential tools. Early users faced compatibility issues and had to adapt to new operating systems and apps, but the benefits outweighed the obstacles. Today, smartphones are the dominant mobile technology, and over 3 billion people worldwide own one.

The smartphone won out because of its superior technology. The change happened rapidly because of the relatively low cost of the phones. Because vehicles are much more expensive than phones, and because EVs need the associated charging infrastructure, the EV transition will take much longer. EVs have superior technology to gas powered cars, similar to the smartphone’s dominance over the flip phone.

Why EVs Have Superior Technology over Gas Cars

Electric vehicles (EVs) offer several advantages over traditional gasoline-powered cars, making them a superior option for many consumers. They produce significantly fewer emissions, contributing to improved air quality and reduced greenhouse gas emissions, even when accounting for the energy-intensive process of manufacturing the vehicle and its battery. EVs also require less maintenance due to having fewer moving parts, which means lower long-term costs for owners, as there are no oil changes, and the wear and tear on components like brakes is reduced.

Additionally, EVs can be powered by renewable energy sources, further reducing their environmental impact. With advancements in battery technology, EVs now offer longer ranges and faster charging times, making them increasingly practical for everyday use, and some offer the possibility of using their batteries as power sources in emergencies. They are also quieter and provide a smoother driving experience, offering instant torque and acceleration without the vibrations and noise typical of internal combustion engines.

EV Charging Buildout Will Take Time

Building the necessary infrastructure, such as EV charging stations, will also take time. Comparing this effort to past large-scale infrastructure projects—like the U.S. interstate highway system or rural electrification—provides a useful perspective. It will take years, if not decades, to establish a robust charging network that can support EVs across the entire country. The infrastructure buildout must address a variety of consumer needs and geographic locations, ensuring charging options are available where people live, work, and travel.

In October 2024, the U.S. electric vehicle (EV) charging network saw significant growth, with 5,086 new public charging ports coming online, marking a 2.6% increase for the month. This expansion is part of a broader effort to make charging more accessible as EV adoption rises. As of now, the national charging network includes over 203,000 charging ports spread across more than 74,000 locations in every state. Additionally, there are ongoing projects to deploy more than 24,000 federally funded chargers, supported by the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law. For those looking to find real-time data on these stations or locate chargers funded through federal initiatives, resources are available at driveelectric.gov.

If you’re interested in learning more about the American EV charging industry, there’s no better place than the EV Charging Summit. The thought-leading event is returning to Las Vegas, March 25-27, 2025. Get your tickets now, EVinfo.net clients enjoy 50% off. There you’ll meet the industry’s best leaders, and see the industry’s most innovative new products, such as those from one of the industry’s leaders, Autel Energy North America.

Turbulence Coming in 2025

Beyond production and infrastructure, federal, state, and local policies play a significant role in shaping the EV market. While incentives have fluctuated, they can be crucial for speeding up the adoption process. However, there is still a need for greater certainty in this policy landscape to encourage long-term planning and investment from both manufacturers and consumers.

Federal incentives for EVs will likely be reduced or eliminated under the incoming administration. This could discourage consumers from making the transition to EVs due to the higher upfront cost. While the EV transition has strong momentum, a return to policies that favor fossil fuels and undermine environmental protections could slow down the pace of change.

The federal EV tax credit and EV subsidies are important because they are crucial to helping American automakers catch up to China and compete with China, by producing EVs, hybrids and gas cars made in America. Removing the credit and subsidies would be a disaster for America’s economy, losing American jobs in significant numbers. EVinfo.net urges you to reach out to government representatives and stop the removal of the federal EV tax credit.

Hybrids Growing Fast, Last ICE Produced on Earth Coming Much Sooner Than You Think

Plug in hybrids (PHEVs) are unpopular among many of my EV colleagues, but the truth is they are an important bridge to full BEV (battery electric vehicle) adoption. There is no reason from this point forward to buy an HEV, which is a hybrid gas and electric vehicle without a plug. If you are considering a hybrid, EVinfo.net recommends PHEVs. But don’t forget to plug it in, a common problem which basically converts it back to an internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle.

Many drivers are turning to PHEVs because available EV charging is still an issue in many parts of the country, especially multifamily dwellers, which are nearly one third of the US population. Few of these multifamily drivers have home charging at the moment. Home charging is the most cost effective and convenient type of charging. Innovative company Pando Electric is solving this problem for multifamily dwellers.

I predict PHEV production and adoption growing and HEV dropping. The last fully gas vehicle on earth (ICE) will get produced much sooner than many people believe possible. It will be because everyone will have switched to BEV, HEV or PHEV instead of ICE.

In America, PHEVs and HEVs will keep gaining market share quickly. Over the next four years we’ll have some challenges in the EV industry as the incoming administration supports fossil fuels over EV. But EV has grown in America and around the world at such a fast and unstoppable level, its too late for big oil to stop it. Big oil supported the incoming administration’s win. However, opponents can only slow EV adoption for a short while and never stop it. From 2017-2020, EVs and clean energy grew fast, with almost no federal support, but grew quickly thanks to state support and significant private investment. A good example is California, the nation’s Golden state and crown jewel, enjoying over 25% EV adoption currently.

The EV Transition in America Seems Slow, But it Really is Not

A rapid, overnight transition to EVs was never realistic. Vehicle ownership cycles, along with the sheer volume of vehicles on the road, mean that even with aggressive policies, it will take decades to reach widespread electrification. The time it takes for cars to turn over offers an opportunity to advance the transition in a more measured, strategic manner, focusing on scaling production, expanding charging infrastructure, and educating consumers about the benefits of EVs.

When comparing ourselves to China, with its 50% adoption, EV adoption in America seems slow. But considering we are at 9% of new car sales being EVs in December, that’s amazing, considering the monumental change of switching a vehicle’s power source, and how most Americans are hesitant to change behavior. Similar to the transition from horse-drawn carriages to gas cars, the EV revolution will be far from cheap, easy, or quick. But it is happening, and will keep happening, regardless of US federal government support for the next four years.

The U.S. currently has more than 3.5 million EVs on the road, with more options available than ever before. In the years ahead, the infrastructure and market will continue to grow. Consumer Reports posted a list of hot new EVs coming soon.

The shift to EVs will require coordination, investment, and patience from all stakeholders. While progress may seem slow, the long-term benefits—such as reduced emissions and lower maintenance costs—will make the wait worthwhile.