EY Says US Is Now Projected to Reach 50% BEV Adoption by 2039, 5 Years Later Than Previously Forecast

Ernst & Young Global Limited (EY), reported on September 9, 2025 that the company’s prediction for the United States to reach 50% BEV (battery electric vehicle) adoption has been pushed forward five years from previous forecasts. EY now predicts this to happen by 2039.

The EY Mobility Lens Forecaster, an AI-powered forecasting model projecting light-vehicle sales through 2050 in major markets, shows that China, Europe, and the United States are moving at very different speeds in the electric vehicle (EV) transition.

China: Accelerating Full-Speed Ahead

In China, new energy vehicles (NEVs), which include both battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs)—are expected to reach 50% of light-vehicle sales by 2025. This surge is fueled by cost advantages and strong policy support, including the rollout of stringent VII vehicle emissions standards. BEVs alone are projected to make up more than 50% of sales by 2033, while overall NEV penetration is expected to climb above 90% by 2034. Although China’s current dominance in global BEV sales share, about 70%, will decline to 54% by 2050, the country will remain the primary driver of global EV growth.

Europe: Rebound After a Pause

Europe is experiencing slower BEV growth through 2027, a result of fading incentives, weaker emissions penalties, and broader economic headwinds. However, this lull is expected to be temporary. Stricter CO₂ regulations and a growing pipeline of affordable EV models are anticipated to spark renewed growth. By 2032, BEVs are forecasted to surpass 50% market share. Until roughly 2030, hybrids and plug-in hybrids will remain the more popular and cost-effective choice, outselling BEVs before the balance tips.

United States: Stalled Momentum

The U.S. EV market faces a more challenging path. Sales may briefly spike in 2025 as buyers take advantage of expiring federal tax credits, but beyond that, momentum is likely to slow. Policy uncertainty, rising costs, gaps in charging infrastructure, and new import tariffs are dampening growth. As a result, the milestone of BEVs reaching 50% of light-vehicle sales is not expected until 2039, a significant delay compared with previous forecasts. Hybrids are set to play a major role for longer, peaking at 34% of U.S. vehicle sales around 2034.

Global Outlook: Hybrid Transition Continues

Despite differences across regions, one common theme is the resilience of hybrids. Across China, Europe, and the U.S., hybrids and plug-in hybrids are expected to hold more than 30% market share through 2036, providing a crucial bridge toward full electrification. Globally, BEVs are projected to cross the 50% threshold of light-vehicle sales by 2034, marking a pivotal turning point for the industry. In May 2025, EVinfo.net reported on how hybrid growth trends reflect EV adoption barriers.

Contextual Insight

EY’s Constantin M. Gall, Global Aerospace, Defense & Mobility Leader, underscores the uneven pace of transition. China benefits from a stable policy framework and a mature EV ecosystem. Europe, though currently experiencing a slowdown, is recalibrating and is likely to accelerate once new regulations and cost reductions take hold. In contrast, the U.S. is struggling with structural and policy challenges that have pushed its EV timeline further out. In all markets, hybrids remain a strategic stopgap solution, sustaining consumer choice and market flexibility until EV adoption becomes more universal.

EVinfo.net’s Take: EY’s US Prediction Too Gloomy

It’s true the US federal government is cutting support for EVs, for example cutting the EV tax credit at the end of September. This is unfortunate, as doing this raises costs for drivers, increases the effects of global human-caused climate change, loses jobs, and drags down our economy.

We believe EY’s prediction for BEV adoption in America is too gloomy. We agree with “a short-term spike in US EV sales is expected in 2025 as buyers rush to claim tax credits before they expire in September,” as EY says in its article.

It makes sense the the tax credit cut, and other EV related government cuts will have some negative impact to EV sales. But we think EY’s 5 year push is too far out. We say one or two max. For the United States to reach 50% BEV (battery electric vehicle) adoption, we’re thinking 2035-2036.

When exciting new technologies like these pass their “tipping points,” then adoption continues to accelerate. And we think the US is one or two years away from the mass EV adoption tipping point currently.

The S Curve of EV Adoption

All the technological revolutions in the last few decades tend to follow a similar behavior, called the S curve. The S-shaped curve illustrates how, in the early stages of a technology’s life, significant investment yields relatively little improvement, products start out expensive and are sold in small amounts. Once a tipping point is reached, sales accelerate dramatically, bringing about massive adoption, before eventually slowing down again. Toward the end of the technology’s lifecycle, improvements become marginal and eventually plateau. Graphically, this progression resembles a flattened “S,” which gives the model its name.

Hybrids Are a Key Bridge to Full Electrification

EY also says hybrids of all types are a “key bridge to full electrification,” which we definitely agree with as well. We believe hybrids will continue to grow for a period of time still, but then peak and fall off, as the world moves to fully electric. This will be good news for the environment and driver’s pocketbooks, as BEVS are the most eco-friendly and cost-saving vehicles.

US EV Adoption Unstoppable, Mass EV Adoption Coming Soon

Karl Brauer, executive analyst at iSeeCars.com told Yahoo Finance, “I could see US [market share] dropping well below 4% immediately after the Sept. 30 incentive goes away and maybe settling in the beginning of 2026, around 4%,” when discussing US EV industry sales.

EV expert Loren McDonald, Chief Analyst at Paren, agreed with me that it was far too gloomy of a prediction. I believe that EY and Brauer are placing too much importance on the government cutbacks.

Americans are increasingly recognizing the many benefits EVs provide. Despite the wave of anti-EV misinformation currently circulating, the reality is undeniable: friends, neighbors, and colleagues are saving money every day by driving electric. Word-of-mouth is spreading quickly as EV drivers share their experiences of long-term cost savings, helping more people see the advantages firsthand. That momentum is building, not slowing.

We believe EY’s prediction is overly pessimistic and underestimates the excitement and permanence of this global shift, and how America cannot afford to continue ignoring global trends. While there may be a brief slowdown in U.S. EV sales once federal credits expire, we expect it to be minor and short-lived. As McDonald has pointed out, consumers tend to adjust quickly, and with exciting and affordable long-range BEV models like the LEAF and Bolt entering the market, growth will quickly resume on an upward trajectory.

Global market shares for internal combustion, hybrid, and electric vehicles have shifted dramatically in just six years—much faster than most automotive experts anticipated. The EV revolution is progressing at an astonishing pace. As proof, the global auto market has now reached a historic point: electrified vehicles accounted for 43% of all new car sales worldwide in Q1 2025, according to JATO data reported by Visual Capitalist. That’s a remarkable jump from only 9% in 2019, underscoring how quickly the transition away from internal combustion engines is accelerating.